Primary Rundown: Before the Storm

With Newt Gingrich's awkward, non-announcement this week, political junkies are jumping at the bit for the campaigning to get started.  Many "contender" lists have come out, separating whose hot from the hopefully nots.  Most candidates had announced their intentions by this point in 2007, so a lot of us are still waiting for our first campaign "fix".  There won't even be a story after the first quarter FEC filing date, because no one can legally raise money with out a campaign entity.  Barack and Hillary already raised near $50 million at that point. The candidates are jockeying for position in every save actual campaigning - this is where they stack up

Nate Silver took a critical look at Gingrich's odds a couple days ago.  Nate notes that Gingrich has the lowest favorable margins amongst Republicans and all voters.  As a candidate, he doesn't have a natural demographic base of support like other to-be candidates do.  Newt is a policy wonk, but not in a "fixer" sort of way as one might classify Daniels or Pawlenty.  The former speaker is more of a futurist, tacking towards big ideas that are off the beaten path.  This will not help him as he seeks a reliable constituency.  The one area is unique wonkishness will be an asset are the litany of debates upcoming in the primary; the first one is in two months!  Maybe Gingrich is already running for VP - he is a bulldog.

Huckabee is the big enigma as of now.  He netted the second most delegates last go around and has arguably the strongest natural constituency, but thus far shows no interest in running.  Punditry and writing have earned him more than he could ever imagine, plus he despises campaigning.  Reading the tea leaves, I find it hard not to read between the lines of Fox New's recent announcement.  Gingrich and Santorum's contracts as "political contributor" have been suspended until they decide whether they're running for president, while Palin and Huckabee (and Bolton) still have a job.  Palin and Huckabee split a constituency, so it's almost an either-or situation as to their candidacies.

Romney, the presumed front runner, made his first public speech in New Hampshire at the end of this week.  He has the money, the base, and the hair to go all the way, yet lots of conservatives are nervous about him.  Ann Coulter quipped at CPAC this year that "he'll lose in the fall" if he gets the nomination.  He's a little too stepford for some people.  I personally supported him last cycle, but this time around it seems as if he is trying to force himself into the role a little too much.

Barbour, Palin, Santorum, Huntsman, Trump, and Cain all will not win the nomination.  Simple as that.  They'll present interesting antidotes over the next year, but eventually be footnotes and maybe a VP.

Tim Pawlenty (affectionately called T-Paw by his supporters) comes off as a middle schooler wearing his Dad's suit to the school dance.  While I loved his movie preview, but it comes off as a couple of teenagers having fun making a video over a long weekend and posting it online.  He doesn't have the pizazz as most candidates or the studied seriousness of other candidates.  His path to the ticket is being everyone's second pick.

Last but not least is My Man Mitch.  Daniels is fighting through state legislative battles at the moment, and has suggested the recent speed bumps might hamper a presidential bid.  He contrasts Obama in every way, from stature to philosophy.  His CPAC speech is yet unmatched, and he is my favored possible candidate in the current pre-primary.

While historically it's absurd we're talking about announcing candidacies at this point (Clinton entered the race the October before the primaries) the 2008 cycle had made it the new normal.

What's the Matter with Mississippi?

That’s the question many commentators were asking last week, when Gallup released their 2010 averages of Obama’s presidential approval ratings, broken down by state. Nate Silver over at Five Thirty Eight found that President Obama’s approval rating has only increased (when compared to his 2008 vote share) in states that voted for McCain. Most surprisingly, Mississippi was at the top of this list. Obama’s 2010 approval rating is more than 4 points higher than the votes he received there in 2008, 47.1 percent to 43 percent.

Continuing with this analysis, last year New Hampshire gave Obama the lowest approval rating of any state that voted for him in 2008 (41.3 percent) and experienced the second largest drop from Obama’s 2008 vote totals (Vermont experienced the largest drop). Conversely, Mississippi gave Obama the highest approval of all the states that voted for McCain in 2008. The article is summarily titled “Is Mississippi the new New Hampshire?”

Yet, two days later, Gallup released another set of polling numbers, examining the average number of self-identified conservatives, moderates, and liberals in each state in 2010. Mississippi is again at the top of the list, this time for being home to the highest percent of conservatives (50.5 percent). Conservatives have a numbers advantage over liberals in all fifty states, ranging from a 36.7 point gap in Mississippi to a 0.2 point gap in Vermont. So if over 50 percent of Mississippians identify as conservative, and over 47 percent approve of Obama, what’s the matter with Mississippi?

Examining the ideological spectrum nationally, Pew found 38 percent of people identify as conservative or very conservative, 33 percent as moderate, and 24 percent as liberal or very liberal in August and September of 2010. Despite the common perception that identifying as conservative equates to being or voting Republican, this is not an absolute. Though only 6 percent of Republicans identify themselves as liberal or very liberal, 24 percent of Democrats identify as conservative or very conservative nationally according to the same Pew poll. Furthermore, moderates are more likely to identify as a Democrat over a Republican by a 3 to 2 ratio (33 to 22 percent). So, despite conservatives boasting pluralities in every state, those pluralities do not translate to a unified Republican voting bloc across the map. Even with his increased popularity in the state, Obama shouldn’t be pegging his reelection hopes on Mississippi any time soon.