Originally appeared at The American, AEI's blog.
Two things that Americans love are football and winners. Professional football has grown in popularity over the past 25 years. In 1985, pro football edged out baseball as America’s most popular sport by just 1 percentage point in Harris’s polling, 24 percent to 23 percent. As of this season, football opened up a 19-point gap over the second-ranked baseball, 35 percent to 16 percent. If you factor in college football, the sport is the favorite sport of half of all Americans. Gallup shows that the majority of Americans identify themselves as pro football fans throughout the last decade. The Wall Street Journal has recently found that across all metrics (ticket sales, TV viewership, merchandise sales), the NFL is at its “zenith.”
Beyond just liking football, Americans like teams who win. Asking respondents to name their two favorite teams every year, Harris has tracked team rankings since 1998 (2000 and 2001 excluded). Only two teams, the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers, have consistently been ranked in the top ten, and the number-one spot has gone to either the Packers or the Cowboys all but once. The Pittsburgh Steelers captured that remaining number-one spot after winning the Super Bowl in 2006, and have not slipped out of the top four since. This year’s Super Bowl contenders are already fan favorites.
More interesting to observe are the crescendos in popularity following historically underperforming teams making a playoff run or the slow decline of powerhouse teams from the 1990s. The Indianapolis Colts hovered around the 24th spot (out of 32) until 2002. Since 2002, they have made the playoffs a record-breaking nine times in a row, and not surprisingly have been ranked on average as the third favorite team for the past five years. Similarly, the New Orleans Saints have consistently appeared at the end of the list. After winning the Super Bowl last year, the team shot up from their usual 24th spot in 2009 to sixth favorite in 2010. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers jumped 14 spots to number 4 in 2003 after winning the Super Bowl and the Arizona Cardinals have climbed 13 spots since their 2009 appearance. After their unexpected playoff run, we can expect the Seattle Seahawks to show some upward mobility from a bottom-scrapping 31st spot this year. Americans like winners.
Lack of success also has a significant impact; both the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers have witnessed a slow but steady decline over the last decade after repeat visits to the Super Bowl in the 1990s. The Jacksonville Jaguars, one of four teams to never reach the Super Bowl, have been at the bottom of the list five out of the last six years.
Looking at another historical trend, the stock market has gained on average 15.2 percent the years the NFC wins the Super Bowl and only 7.3 percent in years the AFC wins. Have no fear though; in the years that either the Packers or Steelers have appeared in a Super Bowl, the stock market has gained on average 25.3 percent. The game this year is already a contest between two fan favorites, and all indicators point to it being a market favorite as well.
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